Did the
‘Mormon moment’ conclude with the end of the 2012 U.S. Presidential campaign?
Certainly any interest in the Latter-day Saints (LDS) that was fueled by the
candidacy of Mitt Romney, a devout Mormon, has ended with his defeat. (Of
course, ‘Mormon’ is a nickname for Latter-day Saint.) However, the Mormon
moment resulted not just from Romney’s candidacy, but from a demographic trend
that will only accelerate over the next few decades. The Mormon moment may be over, but the Saints’ century has just begun.
In 1970,
two years after Mitt’s father George Romney ran for the Republican presidential
nomination, there were just over 2 million LDS in the United States, accounting
for 1% of the American population at the time [see Note 1, below]. By contrast,
in 2010, there were over 6 million LDS in the U.S., comprising almost 2% of
today’s American population [2]. The LDS have shown a median annual net growth
of 1.87% in the U.S. since 1991 [3], even while so-called “mainline” Christian
denominations have shrunk, several to a membership less than the Mormons’ [4].
Of the four largest U.S. churches, the LDS were the only group to show an
increase in American membership in 2010; the rest shrunk [5]. As non-LDS
sociologist Rodney Stark put it, the fact “that the Latter-day Saints have
overtaken such prominent and ‘traditional’ faiths as the Congregationalists,
Presbyterians, Episcopalians, and even the Lutherans must be one of the most
unremarked cultural watersheds in U.S. history” [6].
But, for
the Mormons, the best is yet to come. In early October of this year, Thomas S.
Monson, President of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, announced
changes in age requirements for the Mormon missionary corps. Now many young
people may serve for two years soon after high school graduation. Applications
for LDS missionary service went
up 471% within weeks. Convert baptisms accounted for 70% of LDS growth
worldwide in 2011 [7], so a major increase in the missionary force likely will
lead to an upward bend in the LDS growth curve.
As I show
in my new book, The Rise of the Mormons: Latter-day Saint Growth in the 21st
Century (described here,
available here),
conservative projections foretell immense Mormon growth throughout the 21st
century, both in the U.S. and globally. In the United States, if the Saints
continue to grow just at the rate that they did during the years 2001 through
2010—that is, if the Mormons just keep growing as they are right now— they will
become the second-largest church in the country by 2090 [8] . If instead, with
their larger missionary corps, the Saints return to the growth rates seen
during the 1980s, the Latter-day Saints will become the single largest church
in the U.S. by about 2105 [9].
The global
picture, if anything, is even rosier for the Mormons. Even if the Saints grow
only at the relatively modest rates that prevailed in the mid-1950s, then the
Mormons will come to outnumber the membership of any other Christian group in
the world but the Roman Catholic Church, by about 2090 [10]. If instead, with
that larger missionary force, the Saints grow as they did during the 1960s,
then the Mormons will outnumber any other religious group in the world but
Islam by 2120 [11].
Other
social trends favor LDS growth indirectly. A recent Pew
survey found that the number of people unaffiliated with any religion has
grown sharply in America over the last few years—but the unaffiliated are over
19% more likely to convert to the LDS faith than the general American
population, as shown by other Pew data [12]. This finding may have
international consequences. Rodney Stark has demonstrated that Europeans are
not so much irreligious as unchurched—that is, unaffiliated [13]. This bodes
well for future LDS missionary work in Europe, where Russia, for example, has
seen its LDS population grow by over 80%—from 11 to 20 thousand—in a decade
[14]. Mormon growth continues to be strong in Central and South America [15] and
sub-Saharan Africa [16], where there are more Saints today in Nigeria alone
than there were in Brigham Young’s Utah [17].
Now would
be a good time for the thoughtful public, academics, opinion leaders, and the
press to learn more about what the Mormons are really about. As a Latter-day
Saint myself, it has been disappointing over the last few years to see my
co-religionists and our beliefs ridiculed in public forums, in ways that would
never be tolerated if these comments were directed at, say, Jews or Muslims.
Such ridicule is fueled by profound ignorance; a recent Brookings
survey found that 82% of Americans know little or nothing about the Mormon
religion. But the LDS faith—perhaps surprisingly, for some readers—has great
philosophical and spiritual depth to it. And, heaven knows, there will be lots
more Mormons around in years to come.
Watch for my forthcoming four-part series in Meridian Magazine, in which I project the growth of the Church during the 21st century in the world and in the United States, I respond to many objections to my projections, and I describe what a “more Mormon” world would look like.
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I discuss the growth of the Church of Jesus Christ in my
book,
The Rise of the Mormons, published by Seventh Street Books.
(Described
here,
available
here.)
Copyright © 2012 Mark E. Koltko-Rivera. All Rights
Reserved.
Notes
Note 1:
The 1970 LDS population in the U.S. was 2,073,146 (Deseret News 1974 Church Almanac, p. 197; see References below for
all cited sources). The U.S. population in 1970 was 203,211,926 (as shown by
various public sources). This yields the 1970 LDS share of the U.S. population
as 0.0102 = 1%.
Note 2:
The 2010 LDS population in the U.S. was 6,144,582, a figure derived by adding
the U.S. state totals for U.S. membership found in Deseret News 2012 Church Almanac, pp. 324-415; regrettably, the
figure for the country overall that is printed in that source on p. 324 is an
editorial error, and instead reproduces the LDS population in the U.S. current
at year-end 2009. The U.S. population
in 2010 was 308,745,538 according to U.S. Census data. This yields the 2010 LDS
share of the U.S. population as 0.0196 = 2%.
Note 3:
Author calculations (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 86, Table 4-1) of the median
annual net growth of the LDS, 1991-2010, calculating from data found in annual
editions of the Deseret News Church
Almanac dating from 1992-2012. For example, the net growth in 1991 was
calculated by comparing the membership figures for 1990 and 1991.
Note 4:
Author calculations (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 86, Table 4-1) of the negative
median annual net “growth” of the United Methodist Church, the Evangelical
Lutheran Church in America, the Presbyterian Church (USA), the Lutheran
Church—Missouri Synod, and the Episcopal Church, 1991-2010. These data were
found in the annual editions of the Yearbook
of American and Canadian Churches for the years 1992-2012. For example, the
net “growth” in 1991 was calculated by comparing the membership figures for
1990 and 1991. Each of these groups had a smaller membership than the
Latter-day Saints in 2010, the latest year for which data are available, as
reported in Yearbook of American and
Canadian Churches: 2012, p. 12, Table 2.
Note 5:
See Yearbook of American and Canadian
Churches: 2012, p. 12, Table 2, specifically the first four lines of data.
These data reflect 2010 membership (Yearbook
of American and Canadian Churches: 2012, p. 9).
Note 6:
Stark makes this statement in Stark (2005) p. 140.
Note 7:
Author calculations from data given in “Statistical
Report, 2011” (2012). This source reports “new children of record during
2011” (i.e., babies born to LDS families) equal to 119,917, and “converts
baptized during 2011” equal to 281,312. The sum of these two numbers represents
gross LDS growth during 2011, and is equal to 401,229. The fraction of this
number accounted for by the 281,312 convert baptisms is 0.7011, or just over
70%.
Note 8:
Here’s how I calculated this:
a)
This is a summary of my low-growth
American model (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 90, 91, 95). The median net
annual American Mormon growth rate from 2001 through 2010, inclusive, was
1.67%; this was calculated from figures for American LDS membership given in
the Deseret News Church Almanac
editions for the years 2001 through 2012. The low-growth American model starts
from a base of 6,144,582 American Mormons in 2010 (Deseret News 2012 Church Almanac; see Note 2 above). From this
base, the low-growth American model posits that “the annual growth rate
increases from 1.41% by an additional 0.01% per annum, until reaching a maximum
of 1.67% in 2036. The per-decade growth rate thus rises from 17.96% in 2010 to
18.01% in 2045 and thereafter” (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 90). This rate of
growth leads to a projected LDS American membership of 22,388,442 by 2090
(Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 91).
b)
I compared projected LDS membership to
the projected American membership of the largest non-LDS American churches for
which membership figures were available in the editions Yearbook of American and Canadian Churches for the years 1992
through 2012; I used these figures to calculate the median annual membership
change, 1991-2010, for these churches, and I used those change rates (for
growth or decline) in projecting those churches’ likely growth year by year
through 2120 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 86, 93).
c)
The low-growth American model projected
LDS membership that was larger than the membership of any non-LDS church,
excepting only the Roman Catholic Church, by 2090 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 91,
93).
Note 9:
Here’s how I calculated this:
a)
This is a summary of my high-growth
American model (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 90, 91, 95). The median
estimated net annual American Mormon growth rate from 1981 through 1990,
inclusive, was 5.18%; this was calculated from figures for American LDS
membership given in the Deseret News
Church Almanac editions for the years 1983 through 1992. The high-growth
American model starts from a base of 6,144,582 American Mormons in 2010 (Deseret News 2012 Church Almanac; see
Note 2 above). From this base, the high-growth American model posits that “the
annual growth rate increases from 1.41% by an additional 0.04% per annum, until
reaching a maximum of 5.18% in 2105. The per-decade growth rate thus rises from
17.96% in 2010 to 65.70% in 2114 and thereafter” (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 90).
This rate of growth leads to a projected LDS American membership of 106,916,618
by 2100, and a projected LDS American membership of 176,693,348 by 2110
(Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 91).
b)
I compared projected LDS membership to
the projected American membership of the largest non-LDS American churches for
which membership figures were available in the editions Yearbook of American and Canadian Churches for the years 1992
through 2012; I used these figures to calculate the median annual membership
change, 1991-2010, for these churches, and I used those change rates (for
growth or decline) in projecting those churches’ likely growth year by year
through 2120 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 86, 93; see also pp. 294-296).
c)
The high-growth American model projected
LDS membership that was larger than the membership of any non-LDS church by
2010 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 91, 93).
Note 10:
Here’s how I calculated this:
a)
This is a summary of my moderate-growth
global model (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 69, 70). The net annual global
Mormon growth rate from 1953 through 1956, inclusive, ranged from 4.82% to
4.38%; this was determined by using annual figures for global LDS membership as
given in the Deseret News 2012 Church
Almanac (2012, pp. 204-205), and calculating change figures from 1952 to
1953, and so forth. The moderate-growth global model starts from a base of
14,441,346 Mormons worldwide in 2011 (“Statistical Report, 2011,” 2012, p. 30).
From this base, the moderate-growth global model posits that “the annual Mormon
growth rate continues to fall after 2011, reaching 2% by the end of 2013…. The
moderate-growth model assumes that LDS growth bounces back slowly: the annual
growth rate increases after 2013 by an additional 0.05% per annum, reaching 4%
in 2053, and then staying there. The per-decade growth rate would rise from
27.7% in 2010 to 48% by 2062, and hold there from then on” (Koltko-Rivera,
2012, p. 69). This rate of growth leads to a projected LDS global membership of
211,299,979 by 2090 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 70).
b)
I compared projected LDS membership to
the projected global membership of the major Christian groupings reported in
the Annual Megacensus of Religion. These groupings include Roman Catholics,
Protestants, Independent Christians, Orthodox Christians, and Anglicans. The
Annual Megacensus of Religion may be found in the Encyclopedia Brittanica Books of the Year for the period 1991-2011.
I used membership figures from this source to calculate the median annual
membership change, 2001-2011, for each of these groupings, and I used those
change rates (for growth and decline) in projecting these groupings likely
growth year by year through 2120 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 64, 74). However,
for the non-LDS groups, I applied a progressive discount to take into
consideration falling fertility rates. Specifically (adapting from
Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 292-294):
§
For each group, a nominal projected annual
growth rate (NPAGR) was defined, based on the group’s median growth rate for
2001-2011.
§
An annual fertility reduction factor (AFRF) was
defined annually for 2012-2120, to account for falling fertility rates
predicted for the global population at large (United Nations, 2004). This
annual fertility reduction factor was defined at 0.75% for 2012, and increased
annually thereafter by 0.75% from 2013 through 2120.
§
The applied projected annual growth rate (APAGR)
for each religious body was calculated as follows: APAGR = NPAGR * (1 – AFRF).
The projected membership figure for any given year was thus equal to APAGR
times the previous year’s membership figure (real, in the case of 2011, or
projected).
§
The annual fertility reduction factor, or AFRF,
was not applied to calculate LDS global membership because LDS growth is
overwhelmingly the result of convert baptisms, not so-called ‘natural increase’
(i.e., the births of children to adherents of a given religious body). Global
fertility is all but irrelevant to LDS growth. For most other religious bodies,
at least on a global scale, natural increase seems to be the primary engine for
growth.
c)
The moderate-growth global model
projected LDS membership that was larger than the membership of any non-LDS
Christian body in the world, excepting only the Roman Catholic Church, by 2090
(Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 70, 74, 76-77). This analysis presumes that
individual Protestant bodies are considered as separate Christian bodies.
Note 11:
Here’s how I calculated this:
a)
This is a summary of my high-growth
global model (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 69-70). The median net annual
global Mormon growth rate from 1960 through 1969, inclusive, was 5.46%; this
was determined by using annual figures for global LDS membership as given in
the Deseret News 2012 Church Almanac
(2012, pp. 205), and calculating change figures from 1959 to 1960, and so
forth. The high-growth global model starts from a base of 14,441,346 Mormons
worldwide in 2011 (“Statistical Report, 2011,” 2012, p. 30). From this base,
the high-growth global model posits that “the annual Mormon growth rate
continues to fall after 2011, reaching 2% by the end of 2013…. The high-growth
model assumes that LDS growth bounces back more quickly, and to a higher level,
than the moderate-growth model: the annual growth rate begins to rise after
2012 at the rate of an additional 0.1% per annum, reaching a ceiling of 5.5% in
2048, and staying at that level thereafter. The per-decade growth rate would
rise from 27.7% in 2010 to 70.8% by 2057, and hold at that level from then on”
(Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 69). This rate of growth leads to a projected LDS
global membership of 2,615,763,633 by 2120 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 70).
b)
I compared projected LDS membership to
the projected global membership of the major non-Christian groups reported in
the Annual Megacensus of Religion. These groupings include Muslims, Hindus,
Chinese folk religionists, Buddhists, New Religionists, Sikhs, and Jews. The
Annual Megacensus of Religion may be found in the Encyclopedia Brittanica Books of the Year for the period 1991-2011.
I used membership figures from this source to calculate the median annual
membership change, 2001-2011, for each of these groups, and I used those change
rates (for growth and decline) in projecting these groupings likely growth year
by year through 2120 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 64, 74). However, for the
non-LDS groups, I applied a progressive discount to take into consideration
falling fertility rates; for specifics, see Bullet #12 (b) above.
c)
The high-growth global model projected
LDS membership that was larger than the membership of any religious body in the
world, excepting only Islam, by 2120 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 70, 77, 78, 80).
Note 12:
(Adapting Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 142-152:) Of American Mormons in 2007 26%
had been raised in other faiths—that is, they were converts to the LDS faith (U.S. Religious Landscape Survey: Religious
Affiliation, 2008, p. 27). Of American LDS converts, 19.2% had been raised
as unaffiliated with any religion (calculated from figures in U.S. Religious Landscape Survey: Religious
Affiliation, p. 29: 5% of current LDS who were formerly unaffiliated,
divided by the 26% of LDS who are converts, yields 19.2% of LDS converts who
were formerly unaffiliated). At the time of this survey, the currently
Unaffiliated comprised 16.1% of the American population (U.S. Religious Landscape Survey: Religious Affiliation, 2008, p.
24). Thus, given that 19.2% of LDS converts were formerly unaffiliated, but
only 16.1% of the American population is Unaffiliated, this means that the
Unaffiliated are overrepresented among LDS converts by a factor of [(19.2 – 16.1)/16.1] = 0.19254 = 19.3%.
Note 13:
See Stark (2011), pp. 381-382. Writing of Scandinavia as an example of
supposedly secularized Europe, Stark states: “It is absurd to call these
secularized societies when what they really are is unchurched” (Stark, 2011, p.
382).
Note 14:
The LDS membership in Russia at year-end 1999 was 11,092 (Deseret News 2001-2002 Church Almanac, 2000, p. 389). The LDS
membership in Russia at year-end 2009 was 20,276 (Deseret News 2011 Church Almanac, 2011, p. 567). The growth rate
over the period 1999-2009 was thus equal to [(20,276-11,092)/11,092] = 0.82798
= 82.8%.
Note 15:
Comparing LDS membership figures for 1999 and 2009 (see Note 14 for sourcing
and calculation method), I found that the per-decade growth rate for Honduras
was 42.5%, and for Mexico was 41.4%; similarly, I found that the per-decade
growth rate for Brazil was 48.4%, for Ecuador was 30.1%, and for Peru was 44.0%.
Note 16:
Comparing LDS membership figures for 1999 and 2009 (see Note 14 for sourcing
and calculation method), I found that the per-decade growth rate for the
Democratic Republic of Congo as 188.1%, for Ghana was 136.6%, for Nigeria was
118.8%, for South Africa was 77.0%, and for Zimbabwe was 112.8%.
Note 17:
There were 98,359 Latter-day Saints in Nigeria at year-end 2010 (Deseret News 2012 Church Almanac, 2012,
p. 533). Brigham Young was President of the Church of Jesus Christ of
Latter-day Saints from 1847 until his death in 1877 (Deseret News 2012 Church Almanac, 2012, p. 96). The total
membership of Latter-day Saints worldwide at year-end 1872—25 years into
Brigham Young’s tenure—was 98,152, the largest figure for LDS membership up to
that time (Deseret News 2012 Church
Almanac, 2012, p. 203).
References
Deseret News 1974
church almanac. (1974). Salt Lake City, UT: Deseret News.
Deseret News 2001-2002
church almanac. (2000). Salt Lake City, UT: Deseret News.
Deseret News 2011
church almanac. (20113). Salt Lake City, UT: Deseret News.
Deseret News 2012
church almanac. (2012). Salt Lake City, UT: Deseret News.
Koltko-Rivera, Mark. (2012). The rise of the Mormons: Latter-day Saint growth in the 21st
century. New York, NY: 7th Street Books. (Book description here;
Amazon page here.)
Stark, Rodney. (2005). The
rise of Mormonism (Reid L. Neilson, Ed.). New York, NY: Columbia University
Press.
Stark, Rodney. (2011). The
triumph of Christianity: How the Jesus movement became the world’s largest religion.
New York, NY: HarperOne/HarperCollins.
Yearbook of American
and Canadian churches: 2012 (Eileen W. Lindner, Ed.). (2012). Nashville,
TN: Abingdon Press.
