Did the ‘Mormon moment’ conclude with the end of the 2012 U.S. Presidential campaign? Certainly any interest in the Latter-day Saints (LDS) that was fueled by the candidacy of Mitt Romney, a devout Mormon, has ended with his defeat. (Of course, ‘Mormon’ is a nickname for Latter-day Saint.) However, the Mormon moment resulted not just from Romney’s candidacy, but from a demographic trend that will only accelerate over the next few decades. The Mormon moment may be over, but the Saints’ century has just begun.

In 1970, two years after Mitt’s father George Romney ran for the Republican presidential nomination, there were just over 2 million LDS in the United States, accounting for 1% of the American population at the time [see Note 1, below]. By contrast, in 2010, there were over 6 million LDS in the U.S., comprising almost 2% of today’s American population [2]. The LDS have shown a median annual net growth of 1.87% in the U.S. since 1991 [3], even while so-called “mainline” Christian denominations have shrunk, several to a membership less than the Mormons’ [4]. Of the four largest U.S. churches, the LDS were the only group to show an increase in American membership in 2010; the rest shrunk [5]. As non-LDS sociologist Rodney Stark put it, the fact “that the Latter-day Saints have overtaken such prominent and ‘traditional’ faiths as the Congregationalists, Presbyterians, Episcopalians, and even the Lutherans must be one of the most unremarked cultural watersheds in U.S. history” [6].

But, for the Mormons, the best is yet to come. In early October of this year, Thomas S. Monson, President of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, announced changes in age requirements for the Mormon missionary corps. Now many young people may serve for two years soon after high school graduation. Applications for LDS missionary service went up 471% within weeks. Convert baptisms accounted for 70% of LDS growth worldwide in 2011 [7], so a major increase in the missionary force likely will lead to an upward bend in the LDS growth curve.

As I show in my new book, The Rise of the Mormons: Latter-day Saint Growth in the 21^st Century (described here, available here), conservative projections foretell immense Mormon growth throughout the 21^st century, both in the U.S. and globally. In the United States, if the Saints continue to grow just at the rate that they did during the years 2001 through 2010—that is, if the Mormons just keep growing as they are right now— they will become the second-largest church in the country by 2090 [8] . If instead, with their larger missionary corps, the Saints return to the growth rates seen during the 1980s, the Latter-day Saints will become the single largest church in the U.S. by about 2105 [9].

The global picture, if anything, is even rosier for the Mormons. Even if the Saints grow only at the relatively modest rates that prevailed in the mid-1950s, then the Mormons will come to outnumber the membership of any other Christian group in the world but the Roman Catholic Church, by about 2090 [10]. If instead, with that larger missionary force, the Saints grow as they did during the 1960s, then the Mormons will outnumber any other religious group in the world but Islam by 2120 [11].

Other social trends favor LDS growth indirectly. A recent Pew survey found that the number of people unaffiliated with any religion has grown sharply in America over the last few years—but the unaffiliated are over 19% more likely to convert to the LDS faith than the general American population, as shown by other Pew data [12]. This finding may have international consequences. Rodney Stark has demonstrated that Europeans are not so much irreligious as unchurched—that is, unaffiliated [13]. This bodes well for future LDS missionary work in Europe, where Russia, for example, has seen its LDS population grow by over 80%—from 11 to 20 thousand—in a decade [14]. Mormon growth continues to be strong in Central and South America [15] and sub-Saharan Africa [16], where there are more Saints today in Nigeria alone than there were in Brigham Young’s Utah [17].

Now would be a good time for the thoughtful public, academics, opinion leaders, and the press to learn more about what the Mormons are really about. As a Latter-day Saint myself, it has been disappointing over the last few years to see my co-religionists and our beliefs ridiculed in public forums, in ways that would never be tolerated if these comments were directed at, say, Jews or Muslims. Such ridicule is fueled by profound ignorance; a recent Brookings survey found that 82% of Americans know little or nothing about the Mormon religion. But the LDS faith—perhaps surprisingly, for some readers—has great philosophical and spiritual depth to it. And, heaven knows, there will be lots more Mormons around in years to come.

Watch for my forthcoming four-part series in Meridian Magazine, in which I project the growth of the Church during the 21st century in the world and in the United States, I respond to many objections to my projections, and I describe what a “more Mormon” world would look like.

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I discuss the growth of the Church of Jesus Christ in my book, The Rise of the Mormons, published by Seventh Street Books. (Described here, available here.)

Mark Koltko-Rivera on Twitter: @MarkKoltkoRiver .

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http://www.facebook.com/pages/Mark-Koltko-Rivera-Writer/13487584827

Visit www.MarkKoltkoRivera.com .

Notes

Note 1: The 1970 LDS population in the U.S. was 2,073,146 (Deseret News 1974 Church Almanac, p. 197; see References below for all cited sources). The U.S. population in 1970 was 203,211,926 (as shown by various public sources). This yields the 1970 LDS share of the U.S. population as 0.0102 = 1%.

Note 2: The 2010 LDS population in the U.S. was 6,144,582, a figure derived by adding the U.S. state totals for U.S. membership found in Deseret News 2012 Church Almanac, pp. 324-415; regrettably, the figure for the country overall that is printed in that source on p. 324 is an editorial error, and instead reproduces the LDS population in the U.S. current at year-end 2009. The U.S. population in 2010 was 308,745,538 according to U.S. Census data. This yields the 2010 LDS share of the U.S. population as 0.0196 = 2%.

Note 3: Author calculations (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 86, Table 4-1) of the median annual net growth of the LDS, 1991-2010, calculating from data found in annual editions of the Deseret News Church Almanac dating from 1992-2012. For example, the net growth in 1991 was calculated by comparing the membership figures for 1990 and 1991.

Note 4: Author calculations (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 86, Table 4-1) of the negative median annual net “growth” of the United Methodist Church, the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America, the Presbyterian Church (USA), the Lutheran Church—Missouri Synod, and the Episcopal Church, 1991-2010. These data were found in the annual editions of the Yearbook of American and Canadian Churches for the years 1992-2012. For example, the net “growth” in 1991 was calculated by comparing the membership figures for 1990 and 1991. Each of these groups had a smaller membership than the Latter-day Saints in 2010, the latest year for which data are available, as reported in Yearbook of American and Canadian Churches: 2012, p. 12, Table 2.

Note 5: See Yearbook of American and Canadian Churches: 2012, p. 12, Table 2, specifically the first four lines of data. These data reflect 2010 membership (Yearbook of American and Canadian Churches: 2012, p. 9).

Note 6: Stark makes this statement in Stark (2005) p. 140.

Note 7: Author calculations from data given in “Statistical Report, 2011” (2012). This source reports “new children of record during 2011” (i.e., babies born to LDS families) equal to 119,917, and “converts baptized during 2011” equal to 281,312. The sum of these two numbers represents gross LDS growth during 2011, and is equal to 401,229. The fraction of this number accounted for by the 281,312 convert baptisms is 0.7011, or just over 70%.

Note 8: Here’s how I calculated this:

a) This is a summary of my low-growth American model (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 90, 91, 95). The median net annual American Mormon growth rate from 2001 through 2010, inclusive, was 1.67%; this was calculated from figures for American LDS membership given in the Deseret News Church Almanac editions for the years 2001 through 2012. The low-growth American model starts from a base of 6,144,582 American Mormons in 2010 (Deseret News 2012 Church Almanac; see Note 2 above). From this base, the low-growth American model posits that “the annual growth rate increases from 1.41% by an additional 0.01% per annum, until reaching a maximum of 1.67% in 2036. The per-decade growth rate thus rises from 17.96% in 2010 to 18.01% in 2045 and thereafter” (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 90). This rate of growth leads to a projected LDS American membership of 22,388,442 by 2090 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 91).

b) I compared projected LDS membership to the projected American membership of the largest non-LDS American churches for which membership figures were available in the editions Yearbook of American and Canadian Churches for the years 1992 through 2012; I used these figures to calculate the median annual membership change, 1991-2010, for these churches, and I used those change rates (for growth or decline) in projecting those churches’ likely growth year by year through 2120 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 86, 93).

c) The low-growth American model projected LDS membership that was larger than the membership of any non-LDS church, excepting only the Roman Catholic Church, by 2090 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 91, 93).

Note 9: Here’s how I calculated this:

a) This is a summary of my high-growth American model (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 90, 91, 95). The median estimated net annual American Mormon growth rate from 1981 through 1990, inclusive, was 5.18%; this was calculated from figures for American LDS membership given in the Deseret News Church Almanac editions for the years 1983 through 1992. The high-growth American model starts from a base of 6,144,582 American Mormons in 2010 (Deseret News 2012 Church Almanac; see Note 2 above). From this base, the high-growth American model posits that “the annual growth rate increases from 1.41% by an additional 0.04% per annum, until reaching a maximum of 5.18% in 2105. The per-decade growth rate thus rises from 17.96% in 2010 to 65.70% in 2114 and thereafter” (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 90). This rate of growth leads to a projected LDS American membership of 106,916,618 by 2100, and a projected LDS American membership of 176,693,348 by 2110 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 91).

c) The high-growth American model projected LDS membership that was larger than the membership of any non-LDS church by 2010 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 91, 93).

Note 10: Here’s how I calculated this:

a) This is a summary of my moderate-growth global model (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 69, 70). The net annual global Mormon growth rate from 1953 through 1956, inclusive, ranged from 4.82% to 4.38%; this was determined by using annual figures for global LDS membership as given in the Deseret News 2012 Church Almanac (2012, pp. 204-205), and calculating change figures from 1952 to 1953, and so forth. The moderate-growth global model starts from a base of 14,441,346 Mormons worldwide in 2011 (“Statistical Report, 2011,” 2012, p. 30). From this base, the moderate-growth global model posits that “the annual Mormon growth rate continues to fall after 2011, reaching 2% by the end of 2013…. The moderate-growth model assumes that LDS growth bounces back slowly: the annual growth rate increases after 2013 by an additional 0.05% per annum, reaching 4% in 2053, and then staying there. The per-decade growth rate would rise from 27.7% in 2010 to 48% by 2062, and hold there from then on” (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 69). This rate of growth leads to a projected LDS global membership of 211,299,979 by 2090 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 70).

b) I compared projected LDS membership to the projected global membership of the major Christian groupings reported in the Annual Megacensus of Religion. These groupings include Roman Catholics, Protestants, Independent Christians, Orthodox Christians, and Anglicans. The Annual Megacensus of Religion may be found in the Encyclopedia Brittanica Books of the Year for the period 1991-2011. I used membership figures from this source to calculate the median annual membership change, 2001-2011, for each of these groupings, and I used those change rates (for growth and decline) in projecting these groupings likely growth year by year through 2120 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 64, 74). However, for the non-LDS groups, I applied a progressive discount to take into consideration falling fertility rates. Specifically (adapting from Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 292-294):

§ For each group, a nominal projected annual growth rate (NPAGR) was defined, based on the group’s median growth rate for 2001-2011.

§ An annual fertility reduction factor (AFRF) was defined annually for 2012-2120, to account for falling fertility rates predicted for the global population at large (United Nations, 2004). This annual fertility reduction factor was defined at 0.75% for 2012, and increased annually thereafter by 0.75% from 2013 through 2120.

§ The applied projected annual growth rate (APAGR) for each religious body was calculated as follows: APAGR = NPAGR * (1 – AFRF). The projected membership figure for any given year was thus equal to APAGR times the previous year’s membership figure (real, in the case of 2011, or projected).

§ The annual fertility reduction factor, or AFRF, was not applied to calculate LDS global membership because LDS growth is overwhelmingly the result of convert baptisms, not so-called ‘natural increase’ (i.e., the births of children to adherents of a given religious body). Global fertility is all but irrelevant to LDS growth. For most other religious bodies, at least on a global scale, natural increase seems to be the primary engine for growth.

c) The moderate-growth global model projected LDS membership that was larger than the membership of any non-LDS Christian body in the world, excepting only the Roman Catholic Church, by 2090 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 70, 74, 76-77). This analysis presumes that individual Protestant bodies are considered as separate Christian bodies.

Note 11: Here’s how I calculated this:

a) This is a summary of my high-growth global model (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 69-70). The median net annual global Mormon growth rate from 1960 through 1969, inclusive, was 5.46%; this was determined by using annual figures for global LDS membership as given in the Deseret News 2012 Church Almanac (2012, pp. 205), and calculating change figures from 1959 to 1960, and so forth. The high-growth global model starts from a base of 14,441,346 Mormons worldwide in 2011 (“Statistical Report, 2011,” 2012, p. 30). From this base, the high-growth global model posits that “the annual Mormon growth rate continues to fall after 2011, reaching 2% by the end of 2013…. The high-growth model assumes that LDS growth bounces back more quickly, and to a higher level, than the moderate-growth model: the annual growth rate begins to rise after 2012 at the rate of an additional 0.1% per annum, reaching a ceiling of 5.5% in 2048, and staying at that level thereafter. The per-decade growth rate would rise from 27.7% in 2010 to 70.8% by 2057, and hold at that level from then on” (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 69). This rate of growth leads to a projected LDS global membership of 2,615,763,633 by 2120 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, p. 70).

b) I compared projected LDS membership to the projected global membership of the major non-Christian groups reported in the Annual Megacensus of Religion. These groupings include Muslims, Hindus, Chinese folk religionists, Buddhists, New Religionists, Sikhs, and Jews. The Annual Megacensus of Religion may be found in the Encyclopedia Brittanica Books of the Year for the period 1991-2011. I used membership figures from this source to calculate the median annual membership change, 2001-2011, for each of these groups, and I used those change rates (for growth and decline) in projecting these groupings likely growth year by year through 2120 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 64, 74). However, for the non-LDS groups, I applied a progressive discount to take into consideration falling fertility rates; for specifics, see Bullet #12 (b) above.

c) The high-growth global model projected LDS membership that was larger than the membership of any religious body in the world, excepting only Islam, by 2120 (Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 70, 77, 78, 80).

Note 12: (Adapting Koltko-Rivera, 2012, pp. 142-152:) Of American Mormons in 2007 26% had been raised in other faiths—that is, they were converts to the LDS faith (U.S. Religious Landscape Survey: Religious Affiliation, 2008, p. 27). Of American LDS converts, 19.2% had been raised as unaffiliated with any religion (calculated from figures in U.S. Religious Landscape Survey: Religious Affiliation, p. 29: 5% of current LDS who were formerly unaffiliated, divided by the 26% of LDS who are converts, yields 19.2% of LDS converts who were formerly unaffiliated). At the time of this survey, the currently Unaffiliated comprised 16.1% of the American population (U.S. Religious Landscape Survey: Religious Affiliation, 2008, p. 24). Thus, given that 19.2% of LDS converts were formerly unaffiliated, but only 16.1% of the American population is Unaffiliated, this means that the Unaffiliated are overrepresented among LDS converts by a factor of [(19.2 – 16.1)/16.1] = 0.19254 = 19.3%.

Note 13: See Stark (2011), pp. 381-382. Writing of Scandinavia as an example of supposedly secularized Europe, Stark states: “It is absurd to call these secularized societies when what they really are is unchurched” (Stark, 2011, p. 382).

Note 14: The LDS membership in Russia at year-end 1999 was 11,092 (Deseret News 2001-2002 Church Almanac, 2000, p. 389). The LDS membership in Russia at year-end 2009 was 20,276 (Deseret News 2011 Church Almanac, 2011, p. 567). The growth rate over the period 1999-2009 was thus equal to [(20,276-11,092)/11,092] = 0.82798 = 82.8%.

Note 15: Comparing LDS membership figures for 1999 and 2009 (see Note 14 for sourcing and calculation method), I found that the per-decade growth rate for Honduras was 42.5%, and for Mexico was 41.4%; similarly, I found that the per-decade growth rate for Brazil was 48.4%, for Ecuador was 30.1%, and for Peru was 44.0%.

Note 16: Comparing LDS membership figures for 1999 and 2009 (see Note 14 for sourcing and calculation method), I found that the per-decade growth rate for the Democratic Republic of Congo as 188.1%, for Ghana was 136.6%, for Nigeria was 118.8%, for South Africa was 77.0%, and for Zimbabwe was 112.8%.

Note 17: There were 98,359 Latter-day Saints in Nigeria at year-end 2010 (Deseret News 2012 Church Almanac, 2012, p. 533). Brigham Young was President of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints from 1847 until his death in 1877 (Deseret News 2012 Church Almanac, 2012, p. 96). The total membership of Latter-day Saints worldwide at year-end 1872—25 years into Brigham Young’s tenure—was 98,152, the largest figure for LDS membership up to that time (Deseret News 2012 Church Almanac, 2012, p. 203).

References

Deseret News 1974 church almanac. (1974). Salt Lake City, UT: Deseret News.

Deseret News 2001-2002 church almanac. (2000). Salt Lake City, UT: Deseret News.

Deseret News 2011 church almanac. (20113). Salt Lake City, UT: Deseret News.

Deseret News 2012 church almanac. (2012). Salt Lake City, UT: Deseret News.

Koltko-Rivera, Mark. (2012). The rise of the Mormons: Latter-day Saint growth in the 21^st century. New York, NY: 7^th Street Books. (Book description here; Amazon page here.)

Stark, Rodney. (2005). The rise of Mormonism (Reid L. Neilson, Ed.). New York, NY: Columbia University Press.

Stark, Rodney. (2011). The triumph of Christianity: How the Jesus movement became the world’s largest religion. New York, NY: HarperOne/HarperCollins.

“Statistical report, 2011.” (2012, May). Ensign, p. 30. Accessed online November 9, 2012 at http://media.ldscdn.org/pdf/lds-magazines/ensign-may-2012/2012-05-12-statistical-report-2011-eng.pdf

U.S. religious landscape survey: Religious affiliation: Diverse and dynamic. (2008, February). Washington, DC: Pew Research Center, Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life. Accessed November 9, 2012 at http://religions.pewforum.org/pdf/report-religious-landscape-study-full.pdf

Yearbook of American and Canadian churches: 2012 (Eileen W. Lindner, Ed.). (2012). Nashville, TN: Abingdon Press.

The Manhattan Mormon™

Monday, December 3, 2012

From the Mormon Moment to the Saints’ Century

Notes

References

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